|
|
 |
||||||
 |
Economic Pulse City economy likely to slow By Greg Rohloff Amarillo's economy is likely to slow in 2008, according to an economic forecast from Amarillo National Bank, but not to the severe degree that economists are expecting for the national economy. "It's a yellow light, not a red light," said Amarillo National President Richard Ware in introducing the bank's annual economic forecast. "We don't see a downturn." During the past year, indicators in the monthly Economic Pulse were at times weak enough to cause the index to lag behind the year's, the first time that happened in several years. Retail sales, auto sales and construction all stalled at times during 2007, before showing signs of renewed vigor. The weakest point, though, was job growth, an area Ware said the previous year's forecast had missed. Job growth in 2007 was only a fraction of the pace of job creation in 2006, a pace slower than in Lubbock, said William Ware, an assistant vice president with the bank and son of Richard Ware. That slowdown continued a downward trend from the recent peak job growth in 2005, when nearly 7,000 jobs were added in Amarillo. In 2006, just under 4,000 jobs were added, and that pace fell to less than 1,000 new jobs in 2007. The forecast for this year sees a one percent growth in jobs, the younger Ware said, or about 1,200 jobs total, with major employers likely to be flat for the year and new employers accounting for the bulk of the increase. He noted that more Amarilloans were working two jobs. An additional sign of strength for Amarillo is that wages are up about 6 percent. Amarillo is unlikely to see the kind of grief that is spreading elsewhere, largely because it missed out on the recent speculative boom. Because Amarillo had only about 10 percent of its loans in the subprime category, housing prices are unlikely to fall as far or as fast as elsewhere, said Patrick Ware, also an assistant vice president and son of Richard Ware. Amarillo's rate of inflation, fueled in the past year by gasoline and groceries, should be up slightly in 2008 to about 4.4 percent, or about equal to the national rate. "What gasoline sucks out of the economy is really going to make an impact," said Richard Ware, pointing out the prime victims will be retail sales and home sales. Higher gasoline prices and a rising cost of living can affect those who might otherwise spend more freely. The result, he said: "People feel poor." On the production side of energy, the outlook expects prices for natural gas to average $6.90 per thousand cubic feet and oil to average $85 a barrel. Natural gas is the prime energy product in the Panhandle, and the high oil prices spur workovers of old wells and additional drilling in areas already producing oil. The number of drilling rigs should rise from an average of 66 in 2007 to an estimated average of 71. The farm economy, boosted last year by the trifecta of a wet spring, high yields locally and high prices, probably won't repeat this year, said Richard Ware. One change in farm indices has been the influx of dairy farming, which will make milk prices a factor in farm income. He said motel tax collections, which reflect tourism and travel, were up 10 percent in 2007 from the previous year, and are likely to continue in the new year. E-mail
comments about this story Posted: January 10, 2008
|
|
