Forecast

Amarillo Economic Pulse continues recent patterns

By Greg Rohloff
Business Correspondent

Construction, as it did in the last half of 2007, is providing the strength in the first Economic Pulse of the new year, while job growth, continues as an area concern.

The index, compiled by Amarillo National Bank, stands at 200.45 for January, up from a year earlier at 178.95 when flagging construction plans were a chief economic concern.

Now, job growth has taken construction's position as an area to keep an eye on, said Richard Ware, president of Amarillo National.

For much of the past year, Amarillo's job growth lagged behind Lubbock and in the Midland and Odessa area and the January index is no different.

In the current survey, Amarillo dropped 700 jobs from a year ago, according to the survey done on households, although the employers' survey showed a gain of 1,500 jobs from a year ago.

Those numbers contrast with Lubbock, which gained 700 jobs from a year ago in the household survey and 3,300 jobs in the employers' survey.

Midland/Odessa gained 300 jobs in the household survey and 2,400 in the employers' survey.

Yet, Amarillo continues to be a tight labor market, Ware noted, with weekly wages pegged at $644.22 in the current survey, up from $584.53 a year ago and $634.28 in the previous survey.

Continuing strengths include retail sales and energy producer prices and agricultural prices, he said.

Retail sales, with November being the current index's most recent full month total available, are up 5 percent from a year ago, he said.

The increase in strength is attributable to area agricultural, Ware said.

Wheat stands at nearly double the price of a year ago, while corn is bringing more than 60 cents a bushel more than this time last year.

Cattle are bringing $3 per hundredweight more than last year, while cotton is also up.

Natural gas stood near $8 per thousand cubic feet, compared with $6.70 per mcf in the January 2007 survey and oil stood at $91.49 a barrel in the current survey compared with $50.92 a year ago.

Housing sales are off, as Amarillo stands on the periphery of the nation's mortgage lending mess and of the housing price drop, some 10 percent nationwide.

But, Ware said, housing prices in Amarillo continue to hold their ground.

Those with the best credit rating can find mortgage rates under 6 percent, Ware said.

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Posted: February 7, 2008