Economy Flat

Fall growth unlikely, Pulse shows

By Greg Rohloff
Business Correspondent

Amarillo's economic indicators were flat compared to a year ago, according to the August Amarillo Economic Pulse.

And while the leading indicators in the spring were pointing toward the possibility of renewed growth in the local economy by fall, that appears now to be unlikely. Patrick Ware, a banking officer with Amarillo National Bank, said Amarilloans may be reacting to national news — tighter credit for home lending and foreclosures and slower job growth — and thus, are more cautious than they were earlier in the year.

Now information appears to be pointing toward a flat economy for Amarillo for the remainder of the year, Ware said.

Employment growth continues to lag behind both Lubbock and the Midland-Odessa area in responses to both the surveys of employers and of households. The Amarillo households survey showed a 500 increase in workers from a year ago, and the employers survey showed a 3,200 increase for the same period, but both numbers continue to pale to the growth rates in Lubbock – 1,700 in the households survey and 4,900 in the employers survey – and in Midland-Odessa with 3,700 in the households survey and 5,500 in the employers survey.

Also showing numbers similar to a year ago were retail sales, reflected in nearly identical sales tax collections in August 2006 and this past August of about $4.9 million.

Building permits continue to lag from the torrid pace of 2006, totaling $196.34 million through this past August for the year while 2006 had seen $270.9 million in new permits in the city through August, some 27 percent greater than the present pace.

Offsetting the no-growth factors were higher weekly wages, 4.4 percent above a year ago at $663.03 compared to $635 a week in August 2006, and new vehicle sales, up 11 percent this year, and used vehicle sales, up 4 percent.

Travel continues to be strong, with airline boardings up 3 percent and the hotel/motel tax collections up 12 percent over a year ago.

All totaled, the index stands at 198.96 for August, roughly the same as August 2006's index of 198.7. The index, compiled by Amarillo National Bank, uses January 1988 levels as a baseline of 100.

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Posted: September 13, 2007